Conserving ecosystem function and associated services requires deep understanding of the underlying basis of the system dynamics. While the study of ecological dynamics is a mature and diverse field, the lack of a general model that predicts a broad range of theoretical and empirical observations has allowed unresolved contradictions to persist. In this work we provide a general model of mutualistic ecological interactions between two groups and show for the first time how the conditions for bi-stability, the nature of critical transitions, and identifiable leading indicators in time-series can be derived from the basic parameters describing the underlying ecological interactions. Strong mutualism and nonlinearity in handling-time are found to be necessary conditions for the occurrence of critical transitions. We used the model to resolve open questions concerning the effects of heterogeneity in inter-species interactions on both resilience and abundance, and discuss these in terms of potential trade-offs in real systems. This framework provides a basis for rich investigations of ecological system dynamics, and may be generalisable across many ecological contexts.

For further details see Feng & Bailey (2018).

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This project was funded by the University of Oxford John Fell Fund.

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Project now complete - Group members involved

Richard Bailey, Wenfeng Feng, Kirsty McGregor