From basic ecological principles to system-level behaviour

Conserving ecosystem function and associated services requires deep understanding of the underlying basis of the system dynamics. While the study of ecological dynamics is a mature and diverse field, the lack of a general model that predicts a broad range of theoretical and empirical observations has allowed unresolved contradictions to persist. In this work we provide a general model of mutualistic ecological interactions between two groups and show for the first time how the conditions for bi-stability, the nature of critical transitions, and identifiable leading indicators in time-series can be derived from the basic parameters describing the underlying ecological interactions. Strong mutualism and nonlinearity in handling-time are found to be necessary conditions for the occurrence of critical transitions. We used the model to resolve open questions concerning the effects of heterogeneity in inter-species interactions on both resilience and abundance, and discuss these in terms of potential trade-offs in real systems. This framework provides a basis for rich investigations of ecological system dynamics, and may be generalisable across many ecological contexts.

For further details see Feng & Bailey (2018).

This project was funded by the University of Oxford John Fell Fund.

Project now complete - Group members involved

Richard Bailey, Wenfeng Feng, Kirsty McGregor

Curved Shapes

Here's an image of something relevant....

The approach

This explains what the model / analysis actually is, methods being used, etc...

more text...

more text...

more text...

more text...

more text...

more text...

....and here is a diagram on the right that shows the core elements etc... A full description of the model can be found HERE [add a ink to lower on the page or a hyperlink to a paper, report, etc...; or 'forthcoming' if not yet done]

Core components of the POSEIDON model

Core findings so far

This is what we've found so far.... 

  • sheep are larger than cats, and people generally don't read web pages

  • 87% of all estimates are wrong

  • my real passion is woodwork

...more text

...more text

...more text

...more text

...more text

Read more here: ...article reference, or equivalent

Chart
Chart
Chart

Brief caption on the example figures shown above............

Ongoing work

What we're currently doing in this project, who we're working with, what the general problems are, etc...

...more

...more

...more

...more

...more

...more

...more

...more

...more

Outputs

Full publication list

Online stuff - other web pages, YouTube content, ...

Conference presentations, major meetings...

Online resources: Github, etc..